To my mind, a broad and simplified story of Palitoy’s production of AF would read something like this:
Pre-Phase
Palitoy make the ever popular Action man range, are on to a winner, and seek to expand.
Phase 1a (
The first 13 AF figures are produced, to the highest standards, based on the Action Man originals. All details are correct, including helmet decals and paint highlights.
German Stormtrooper, Deep Sea Diver, Mission Pilot, SAS, Australian Jungle Fighter, Commando, US Paratrooper, Desert Rat, Frogman, Mountain & Arctic, Ground Assault, British Marine. In addition, there is also the Commander Figure.
Phase 1b (
Increased interest leads to new factory, and a stack of simplifications/changes in the moulds. So we see decreased attention to detail (decals, etc.), and changes in moulding due to their now being 2 factories making them (or more, but effectively 2 moulds for all of the body parts). This means variants in the original 13 figures, as well as the introduction of 6 new figures, of which only 1 has a significant variant (the Naval Assault, but as he is being made in two factories, he is also showing the same variant features). At this time, plans are made for a larger more bold line.
2 Para, Arctic Assault, Helicopter Pilot, Naval Assault, Night Patrol, SAS Frogman.
Phase 2a (

The original Action Force is discontinued, and AF is born. Many of these new figures used existing moulds from Phases 1a & 1b, carrying with them the variants produced in Phase 1b (for example, the Naval Assault figure, repainted, variants and all, as Sea Skimmer/Surfer) In addition, many new moulds are also made to create the new range. Almost immediate success means that plans are afoot for an expansion.
Phase 2b (

This is what has been known as the ‘second wave’ in which figures in Phase 2a continue to be made, but new figures are added to the range. At this stage, and in order to cope with increased demand, a new factory(s) is used, and new moulds are made (as 1b above). These new moulds copy the Phase 2a moulds, but are sometimes subtly different, and here we also see a monkeying around with both painting technique and plastic (see various posts mentioning these). It is this that produces the many variants, and the use of two moulds produces the ‘rule of two’ in which there are often two variants of figures (the flat hand and the round hand, the doofus and non-doofus, etc.).
Phase 2c (

This phase sees a winding down of AF production, and we see an increase in ‘Friday afternoon specials’, in mis-carding, figures with bad paint, bad plastic and two left legs (all discussed previously). Eventually, the dream is over, and all crumbles, heroically, before the might of GI Joe.
Phase 3 (
This sees Palitoy as a sub-division of General Mills producing, or just selling on their behalf, Action Force and Cobra toys. The introduction of Duke and his team versus Cobra Commander, etc.
There is obviously much more going on at Palitoy than just this, but I think that covers it from a variant perspective, and we can now, I think, begin to peg the variants to the various Phases. So, for example, the Zip Fronted Commander is Phase 1a, Plain Fronted Commander is Phase 1b, but both are used in Phase 2a in a repainted form as Z Force Commander.
The Phasing is not solid, at no point did anyone in Palitoy sit round a table smoking a cigar and bellow “gentlemen, we are now entering Phase 2b… make me some new moulds”. Rather, as and when it was needed, new things were introduced, new moulds were made, and new paint ordered. For example, Phases 2c and 3 were obviously happening at the same time, roughly, and Phase 2a began as Phase 1b was being wrapped up, allowing the surplus figures to be sold.
What do you think? Any input, criticism, or mockery gratefully received.
EDIT - I tweaked the Phase names a little.