Hopper wrote:My friend, if you are declaring the possibility of it being tin helmet time, then I for one will be buying a tin helmet.
So, is the sh*t actually about to hit the fan, or are we looking at a new cold war proper (as opposed to the last 20 years of lets pretend we're friends cold war)?
It's already a Cold War, MH17 tipped the balance so noone could ignore anymore.
But like a Cold War via World War I (British manufacturers selling barbed wire to Germany via Switzerland despite hostilities). But, in the Cold War USA kept USSR fed in the 70s with subsidised fish and wheat even as the Politburo fed the military-industrial complex on extraordinary post -1973 petrodollar income, so .... is it really that different?
Russia has called the meet so that the head of UN OCHA (focused on humanitarian affairs) is compelled to talk about the displacement problems in East Ukraine. This is also cover for the suppression of the Siberian independence movement who are kind of highly motivated (all goes back to a post-Crimea mayoral election in Novosibirsk that Putin's party lost and Putin's demands re: Ukraine's federalisation). But as Russian guerrillas have created the refugee problem (and some international aviation problems in the process) this is all but a black joke out of Gogol's (Politburo approved) playbook.
Noone knows who is in charge in Moscow anymore as the Army is not keen on an operation and their (+ SVR's) suppressed rivals the GRU are running the war despite facing extinction eighteen months ago.
Given the lock on by an Su-27 on a USAF RC-135 over the Baltic (forcing it into Swedish airspace) things are getting twitchy for the Yanks.
The six French Rafales on CAP in Poland (bilateral deal - Netherlands and then Italy vetoed early NATO deployments there, but UK now getting in on the act with "twenty tanks" for some spurious exercise rather than defensive purposes) have had a few tasty moments with RF forces based in Belarus (so many jets forward deployed that there are not enough hangars or dispersed hardened shelters for them - kept in the open as nothing to fear from westward approaches) since March. The four UK Typhoons in the Balts get to see the glories of Soviet aviation as well, more the lumbering types. But strike and air defence wings of the OpFor are focused further south so you might as well be using a Tornado or F16 to make a show of force in the Karakoram. Oh, wait...
After you've murdered nearly 300 foreigners for no reason in particular reason then escalating further is not particularly difficult. 1000+ Ukrainian civilians KIA and c. 400 in military is but a detail as the rest will be.
So, almost tin helmet time, but not quite, but time to think about it. We'll know more in the next twelve hours.
PS. Another problem is that all the Ukrainian militia attached to National Guard wear old UK DPM and desert pattern army surplus. Even some UK issue helmets (the ones before those new ones that tip forward as you're aiming) and some desert camo and DPM webbing. So, if there is no UK army surplus in the UK anymore as its been sold to Ukraine, where does one buy a helmet or a gas mask these days in UK anyway? Not been checking recently ... nor on feebay neither.
PPS. And another problem is that all the Russian guerrillas from Russian prisons, ultranationalist covens, North Caucasus militias and Airborne units and commanded by Russian GRU officers wear a lot of old UK DPM as well as occasional desert pattern army surplus. Even some UK issue helmets (the ones before those new ones that tip forward as you're aiming) and DPM webbing and chest rigs. So, if there is no UK army surplus in the UK as its been sold to the Russian military, where does one buy a helmet or a gas mask?? Not been checking recently ... nor on feebay neither.
History records that one of the first guerrillas on the scene of MH17, before the guerrillas' SF unit Sokol turned up in fully kitted German webbing and rigs and encrypted radios on top of newer Russian camo, was wearing full c. post 1991-style UK desert kit ... complete with a Union Jack sewn onto the shoulder. Harry Potter capitalism at its finest.
Anyway, now to watch the UNSC. Guten Abend.
still has a feeling there is one last surprise left before it all gets even worse ... 
