Blood for the Baron!

So far it seems that, according to all official records, yesterday was the first day noone was killed in theatre.

For three days central Donetsk has had no outgoing or incoming artillery either.

With the delivery of diesel and winter uniforms by the Russians now complete, armour has withdrawn from central Donetsk. Indicators today suggest it is all now moving south to Mariupol.

December 1979 - Kabul
December 1994 - Grozny
December 2014 - Mariupol?

Russians desperately need to feed occupied Crimea, perhaps this is where all force shall now be concentrated to finally open a land route ...

Airspace closed over Dnipropetrovsk.
Ukraine army in Mariupol has not yet detected the armour heading south from Donetsk.
.... In for a long day.

Tell them?

The Baron wrote:Tell them?

No worries Eisenblut, they know what's coming and verily are they looking for it/ready for it (first trenches outside Mariupol dug in September after Novoazovsk fell).

But all that new armour seems to have halted just beyond the horizon, no eyes on target, no sound either. A bit of psychological warfare at play.

Russians will have all the EW aircraft up along the border, all radio signals inc. mobiles will be jammed, only non-telephone fixed line field phone type arrangement from occupied territory may work.

But a limited number of domestic lines will work regardless, but Ukraine's assets behind the lines can't use them otherwise the home concerned will get a visit within 36 hours from the knife-in-the-back-of-the-knee brigade.

On the other hand, the Russian armour is where it has to be, can't move until Godwin's Law certifies instructions are received between midnight and 6AM as per the T&C of said law's progenitor.

Thus we are all affixed in all manner of pomo paradox. Sort of.

The Baron wrote:Tell them?

Having written that, one has to wonder if the Russians are again baulking.

Wouldn't be the first time, but internal politics, and precedent, and the avowed repledging of allegiance of all manner of ultranationalists from the pseud-Navalny to the person of the President, replete with all manner of expectations intimate to that political act, perhaps press the matter towards a singular, and inevitable, outcome.

If not now, in time for Orthodox Christmas and New Year it is then.

Unless the newly formed troops are combat ineffective in so far as they arrived at their ultimate azimut and got the vodka out. Would not be the first time, nor the last.

Yesterday a Russian propaganda channel uploaded film of a 'Military technical convoy heading towards Mariupol'. Local data inc. weather patterns suggests they were indeed moving south.

Initial ccupants are not the usual ad hoc Russian criminal-North Caucasian militia: they are combo Russian paras and marines in the universal 'little green men' kit. After all, 1st October conscript reshuffle is now complete.

Armour itself seems to be from Luhansk deliveries two months ago, some caveats apply due to recent resupply. Possibly more data to follow. Nevertheless, Russians are concentrating kit towards the south west.



Writing on the sides of vehicles à la "HA MAPИYPOLЬ" style reads as: "TO MARIUPOL !"

"Bollocks to the Mother of Kazan and such."

Quickfire wrote:

Part of that convoy featured more T-72B derivatives native to Russia.

All airspace from northern Ukraine (Kharkhiv) to Dnipro(-petrovsk) and on to Zaporizhia and Melitopol was indeed shutdown today due air activity north and south of Ukraine's eastern air corridor.

Several explanations in place due to RF forces returning from exercise in the Arctic - or simply new reinforcements flown in from the East -to front line military districts inside RF (mainly desert-of-te-real Pskov region and Rostov to the south), UA air force having made first missions in the east for several months and enemy air closing in on / violating frontiers as a warning, to local UA air force units enforcing a lockdown to take out RF drones much deeper inside national territory.

INTERLUDE:

Russian journos (presumably briefly) made it to the refitted Old Terminal at Donestsk airport after the 1-3 December shenanigans and a singular ceasefire.

No longer possible as of four or so days ago...

It's unbelievable... all this is going on & yet one of last nights ITN's headline stories was that, due to an undisclosed illness, Mel B wouldn't be appearing in the X Factor final.